一、报告题目：The 1978 English boarding school influenza outbreak: where the classic SEIR model fails

二、报告人：何岱海 教授

三、时间：2024年9月12日 20:00—20:50

四、腾讯会议：903 710 394

报告摘要：In 1978, there was the famous influenza A/H1N1 outbreak in an English boarding school. This dataset was widely used in mathematical epidemiology textbooks and research papers, but the mathematical models, including classic SIR and SEIR, did not fit the data well, especially the attack rate. We built a biologically plausible and simple enough model that fitted the numbers of confined to bed and convalescent students as well as the total number of infected students (attack rate) correctly. One of the main features of the model were non-exponential residence times in model groups, which differed it from standard SIR/SEIR-like models.

报告人简介：何岱海，香港理工大学应用数学系教授；西安交通大学工学博士(1999)和加拿大麦克马斯特大学数学博士(2006)；曾在北京师范大学、密歇根大学和以色列特拉维夫大学做博士后；主要研究兴趣是传染病建模和医疗数据统计分析；在PNAS、Science Advances、Annals of Internal Medicine、European Respiratory Journal、Journal of the Royal Society Interface等期刊发表论文140余篇；Google H-index 47. 连续两年入选斯坦福大学发布的全球2%顶尖科学家榜单(2021-2023)。

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